| المستخلص: |
البحث هو دراسة جغرافية مناخية يرمي للكشف عن فهم وتحليل سلوك الاتجاه العام لقيم الإشعاع الأرضي الشهري والسنوي، والتنبؤ بقيمها خلال السنوات العشرة القادمة في منطقة الدراسة. استخدم برنامج (SPSS) للوصول لتحليل البيانات واستخراج المعالم الإحصائية من خلال تقنية السلاسل الزمنية وللتنبؤ بمناخ المستقبل واتجاهاته، من خلال القراءات للسنوات السابقة والتي تم حسابها، لبناء توقعاتنا عليه ومن هذا المنطلق قمنا باستغلال ما موجود لدينا في الوقت الحاضر من بيانات مناخية لنصل إلى قيم الإشعاع الأرضي في منطقة الدراسة. حيث شملت مدة الدراسة الأعوام بين (1975- 2017). واستخرجنا قيم التنبؤ للسنوات العشرة (2018 – 2027) باستعمالنا لطريقة الانحدار الخطي البسيط كما استعملنا طريقة المربعات الصغرى لإيجاد الاتجاه العام لقيم الإشعاع الأرضي الشهري والسنوي وللتنبؤ بها.
Research is a geo-climatic study aimed at detecting and analyzing the behavior of the general trend of monthly and annual terrestrial radiation values and predicting their values over the next ten years in the study area. Using the SPSS program to access data analysis and extract statistical features through time series technology and to predict the future climate and trends through the readings of previous years that have been calculated to build our expectations. In this sense, we have exploited what we currently have from climatic data to on the climate of the future. Where the duration of the study years between (1975 - 2017). We extracted the prediction values for the 10 years (2018-2027) using the simple linear regression method. We also used the lower squares method to find and predict the overall trend of monthly and annual terrestrial radiation values. The search results in a range of results: 1- The average annual rate of radiation in the study area was (5.22) mJ / m2, day, while the highest rate of radiation values in the study area was (5,88) mJ / m2, day 1978 increase (0.4) mJ / m2, day. while the record showed a rate of terrestrial radiation was (4,48) in (2009), which is less than the average (0.7) mJ / m2 .day. 2- The highest monthly rate of radiation values for the study area was recorded in the month of June in 1980 (7.70) mJ / m2. The lowest monthly rate of the radiation values in the study area was recorded in December of the year (2001) and reached (3.14) mJ / m2, day. 3- The general trend of the time series of terrestrial radiation values showed a negative trend (-0.10) during the period 1975-2017. 4- The monthly trend of the time series of terrestrial radiation values was negative, reaching the highest trend (-0.04) in July, while the lowest trend in the month December (-0.002). 5- The research also indicated that the prediction of the values of terrestrial radiation over the next (2018-2027) years shows a tendency to fall below their rates. This is an indication of the decrease in the expected ground radiation values for the study area. The highest annual rate will be (4.74) mJ / m2, In the year 2018, which is less than the average of (0.48) mJ/ m2 on a daily basis, while the average annual rate of (4,57) mJ/ m2, day in 2027 will be less than the annual average (0,65-).
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