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Analysis of the Gcc Balances of Payments Performance

المصدر: مجلة الكويت الاقتصادية
الناشر: الجمعية الاقتصادية الكويتية
المؤلف الرئيسي: Rammadhan, Mohammad Ali (Author)
مؤلفين آخرين: Al Musallam, Marwa (Co-Author)
المجلد/العدد: مج9, ع18
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: الكويت
التاريخ الميلادي: 2005
الصفحات: 7 - 29
رقم MD: 661104
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: الإنجليزية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي | ميزان المدفوعات | التدفقات النقدية
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المستخلص: This paper examines the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on the performance of the balances of payments in four GCC members (Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the period 1970-2001. The analysis indicates that the proportion of oil exports out of merchandise exports has been declining gradually in all the members except Kuwait. Moreover, the proportion of merchandise exports out of GDP has also declined throughout the period in all members except for the UAE. The ratio of merchandise imports to GDP has averaged between 20 to 30 per cent throughout the period in all members except the UAE. The ratio of trade balance to GDP in the members of the GCC has fluctuated sharply with changes in the world price of oil. The decline in oil exports combined with deficit in the services balance and net current transfers depleted the gains from trade surplus in all members. This resulted in a continuous decline in the current account surplus. This study recommends that all members of the GCC must adopt struc-tural reform programs to stabilize the balance of payments against fluctuations in oil prices.

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