Electricity consumption forecasting in the Khan Younis province using exponential smoothing and box-Jenkins methods: a modeling viewpoint
| العنوان بلغة أخرى: |
تنبؤ استهلاك الكهرباء في محافظة خانيونس باستخدام طريقة التجانس الأسي و بوكس جينكينز: وجهة نظر من خلال النماذج |
|---|---|
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | Abu Alrish, Rana Mahmoud (Author) |
| مؤلفين آخرين: | Iqelan, Bisher M. (Advisor) |
| التاريخ الميلادي: |
2015
|
| موقع: | غزة |
| التاريخ الهجري: | 1436 |
| الصفحات: | 1 - 80 |
| رقم MD: | 696963 |
| نوع المحتوى: | رسائل جامعية |
| اللغة: | الإنجليزية |
| الدرجة العلمية: | رسالة ماجستير |
| الجامعة: | الجامعة الإسلامية (غزة) |
| الكلية: | كلية العلوم |
| الدولة: | فلسطين |
| قواعد المعلومات: | Dissertations |
| مواضيع: | |
| رابط المحتوى: |
عدد مرات التحميل
51
| المستخلص: |
Time Series analysis can be used to extract information hidden in data. The classical techniques for Time Series data analysis are the linear Time Series models including the Moving Average Models (MA), the Autoregressive Models (AR), the Autoregres-sive Moving Average Models (ARMA), the Seasonal Integrated Moving Average Models (SARIMA). We are mention and display these models in details, and we show the important characteristics and methods of finding their parameters, auto covariance, autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation function. We are presented a details of Exponential Smoothing Model and his methods like Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, Holts Linear Method, Damped Trend Method and Holt-Winters Trend and Sea-sonality Method. In this theses we have used Box - Jenkins models and Exponential Smoothing Model to analysis the electricity data of Khan Younis province in period 2000- 2010 and we compar between two models to choose the fitting model for forecasting data in period Jan 2011 to Dec 2011. Aftre comparative the best model is Exponential Smoothing Model. We are using R program. |
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