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The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Trade Balance Performance in Egypt: Is there a J-Curve Phenomenon?

المصدر: المجلة العلمية للاقتصاد والتجارة
الناشر: جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة
المؤلف الرئيسي: Ezzat, Ahmed Mohamed (Author)
المجلد/العدد: ع4
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: مصر
التاريخ الميلادي: 2018
الصفحات: 660 - 695
DOI: 10.21608/JSEC.2018.39498
ISSN: 2636-2562
رقم MD: 1050465
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: الإنجليزية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية:
Currency Depreciation | Exchange Rate in Egypt | J-Curve | Terms of Trade | Trade Balance
رابط المحتوى:
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المستخلص: This study targets to test the J-curve hypothesis in Egypt. The dynamics of the bilateral trade balance with Egypt’s main eight trading partners is investigated. The findings of the paper investigate that the J-curve hypothesis does not hold in case of Egypt, especially in the long-term. This is consistent with most of the previous studies tested the same hypothesis in developing countries. The conclusion to policy makers can be presented in two main points. First, the negative impact of the depreciation of the pound against the US dollar was confirmed in the short term. This requires action to mitigate these effects, especially for the poor. Second, it is not possible to rely only on devaluing the Egyptian pound to improve the long-term balance of trade; both of domestic production and export development policies should be developed to help improve the balance of trade as a result of the devaluation of the pound.

ISSN: 2636-2562

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