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تطور استهلاك الطاقة الأولية فى دولة الكويت وآفاقه المستقبلية

العنوان بلغة أخرى: Development of Primary Energy Consumption in Kuwait and its Future Outlook
المصدر: مجلة النفط والتعاون العربي
الناشر: منظمة الاقطار العربية المصدرة للبترول - الأمانة العامة
المؤلف الرئيسي: الزيتوني، الطاهر (مؤلف)
المؤلف الرئيسي (الإنجليزية): El-Zetoni, Eltaher
المجلد/العدد: مج46, ع173
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: الكويت
التاريخ الميلادي: 2020
الصفحات: 7 - 112
رقم MD: 1081909
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: العربية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
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عدد مرات التحميل

9

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المستخلص: The study aims to analyza the trends and patterns of consumption of primary energy sources in the State of Kuwait and explain its main features during the period (1995 - 2018), and reviews the main factors affecting consumption such as economic and population growth and local energy prices. The study also aims to estimate the expected total consumption of primary energy until 2040. The study is divided into two main parts. The first part reviews the patterns and trends of consumption of primary energy sources in Kuwait during the period (1995 - 2018). This part also provides a brief overview of the most important features of the development of domestic consumption of primary energy and growth rates in the State of Kuwait, and the development of the primary energy mix and the intensity of energy consumption. This part also reviews the main economic and social factors affecting energy consumption in Kuwait due to their importance on the accuracy of future expectations. The second part deals with expectations of energy consumption in Kuwait until the year 2040, where the function of consumption of primary energy sources is estimated on a systematic basis compatible with the energy conditions in Kuwait and the quality of available data, and the use of the model that was estimated to extrapolate future expectations of total consumption of primary energy until 2040. The second part also deals with the methodology for preparing future projections for the consumption of primary energy that includes data used in the study and methods of processing it, and prediction methods used in the study and statistical relationships and mathematical models approved for forecasting, then it reviews the assumptions for future predictions where the study envisages anticipation Future prospects for the consumption of primary energy sources in Kuwait through five main scenarios. The first scenario is the reference scenario, the second is the high growth scenario, the third is the low growth scenario, the fourth one is the scenario of gradually raising the domestic energy prices, and the fifth and last scenario is the scenario which consider the national goals of utilizing renewables. Also, in the second part, the final results of the future projections of total primary energy consumption will be reviewed, according to the above-mentioned scenarios.