The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Economic Growth in Egypt through Applying the Threshold Regression Model
| المصدر: | المجلة العلمية للبحوث التجارية |
|---|---|
| الناشر: | جامعة المنوفية - كلية التجارة |
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | El Ghazi, Samar (Author) |
| مؤلفين آخرين: | Elgazzar, Farouk F. (Co-Author) |
| المجلد/العدد: | س10, ع3 |
| محكمة: | نعم |
| الدولة: |
مصر |
| التاريخ الميلادي: |
2023
|
| الشهر: | يوليو |
| الصفحات: | 9 - 31 |
| رقم MD: | 1396740 |
| نوع المحتوى: | بحوث ومقالات |
| اللغة: | الإنجليزية |
| قواعد المعلومات: | EcoLink |
| مواضيع: | |
| كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية: |
Budget Deficit | Economic Growth | Threshold Regression Model | The First Threshold and the Second Threshold
|
| رابط المحتوى: |
عدد مرات التحميل
3
| المستخلص: |
This study examines the impact of the budget deficit on economic growth in Egypt during the period from 1995/1996 to 2020/2021. We apply the Threshold Regression Model by identifying three threshold levels of budget deficit: 1) base threshold level –9.5, 2) decreased threshold from –9.5 to less than 1%, and 3) positive surplus of 1%. Our results indicate that the relationship between budget deficit and the growth in GDP is not consistently a linear one depending on the deficit level. In threshold one where the deficit level is –9.5, the impact on the growth in GDP is a decrease of 0.265 for each one percent increase in the deficit. In setting two where the threshold level is less than -9.5% to zero deficits, the decline in GDP increased to 0.650. In the last setting where there is a surplus in the budget, the relationship between GDP and the budget turned positive to 2.14 percent for each one percent of budget surplus. The findings of this study have crucial implications for the government of Egypt in managing the budget and public debt. If the country plans for achieving economic growth, it is necessary to keep budget surplus at one percent or higher. |
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