| المستخلص: |
The global economy witnessed an unprecedented downturn during 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which had a major negative impact on the global oil markets. As the start of global economy recovery from the repercussions of the pandemic in 2021, supported by vaccination campaigns acceleration which greatly contributed to easing and abolishing mobility restrictions, global oil markets witnessed positive developments. But During 2022, the global economy faced several challenges that caused a slowdown in growth in its performance, and was surrounded by a great state of uncertainty about its future prospects. The most prominent challenge were the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe that put global energy security at risk, the record rises in global inflation rates that contributed to rise in energy prices, as well as the continuing concerns about the possible emergence of new variants of Covid. This was reflected on the global oil markets fundamentals, which witnessed remarkable fluctuations. The study mainly aimed to shed light on the current and future developments in the global economy performance during the period (2019-2027), and to review the current and future developments of the global oil markets during the period (2019-2050). As well as showing the potential repercussions of economic developments on the future prospects of global oil markets. The study includes three parts, the first part of was devoted to reviewing current state and future prospects for global economic developments according to international groups, the second part deals with global oil market indicators developments and their future prospects, and the third part focuses on the potential repercussions of developments in global economy on oil markets. One of the most important conclusions of this study is that in the global oil markets developments are linked to a strong positive and mutual relationship with the global economy performance. As tracking the time periods that witnessed recession and downturn in global economy performance, it was found that global oil markets were negatively and significantly affected by this performance, along the value chain. On the other hand, global oil markets witnessed a recovery in the time periods that witnessed an improvement in the global economy performance.
Also, the study concluded that achieving stability and balance in the global oil markets with all its components is necessary to continue sustainable growth in the global economy performance. Therefore, attention is required to consolidating oil industry bases in OAPEC member states and enhance their production capacity, to ensure the achievement of global energy security. Especially since the international energy organizations outlook indicate that oil will continue to retain the biggest share in the global energy mix until 2050. The main oil exporting countries (especially OAPEC member countries) have a great opportunity to maximize the benefits accrued from exceptional oil revenues achieved during 2022, which is one of the most important sources of their national income and contributes to achieving sustainable development, through building margins of Financial security, maintaining the momentum of public finance reforms, and advancing the implementation of economic transformation and diversification plans. In addition, member countries will be benefited from the shift in oil trade course, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, as European countries seek to find an alternative to their oil purchases from Russia.
|
