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|a استهدف هذا البحث دراسة الوضع الراهن للتجارة الخارجية المصرية للأسماك والتعرف على أهم العوامل المؤثرة على الصادرات والواردات المصرية منها للوقوف على سبل تنمية صادراتها والحد من وارداتها، وقد تبين أن الأسماك المجمدة هي أهم وأكبر المجموعات السمكية المستوردة في مصر، واتسمت كلا من الصادرات والواردات السمكية بالتركز الجغرافي، وأن كمية الواردات الشهرية قد زادت خلال الشهور مارس، أبريل، مايو، وديسمبر عن متوسطها خلال فترة الدراسة، وأن حوالي ۹۸% من التغيرات في كمية الواردات المصرية من الأسماك ترجع إلى التغير في كلا من حجم الفجوة الغذائية من الأسماك، وسعر التجزئة للدواجن. وبالنسبة للصادرات فقد تبين أن الأسماك الطازجة أو المبردة هي أهم وأكبر المجموعات السمكية المصرية المصدرة للخارج، وقد زادت كمية الصادرات الشهرية خلال الشهور من مارس حتى يوليو وكذلك في شهري نوفمبر وديسمبر عن متوسطها خلال فترة الدراسة، وأن أكثر من 99% من التغيرات في كمية الصادرات المصرية من الأسماك ترجع إلى التغير في إجمالي واردات كل من السعودية، الإمارات، والكويت من الأسماك الطازجة أو المبردة.
|b Egypt suffers from a large deficit in the fish trade balance which reached about 593.2 million dollars, and a decrease in the rate of fish exports coverage of its imports, which reached about 6.1% during the period (2015-2019), this research aimed to study the current state of foreign trade of fish and identify the most important factors affecting it. The main results of the research are as follows: - The value of the deficit in the trade balance of fish in Egypt, the rate of export coverage of Egyptian imports, the amount of imports, the value of imports, the amount of exports, and the value of Egyptian exports of fish have taken an increasing trend during the period (2005-2019) with annual growth rates, respectively, amounting to 10.3 %, 4.9%, 7.7%, 10.5%, 12.8%, 13.8% of the average for each of them during the study period. - Frozen fish are the most important imported groups of fish in Egypt during the period (2015-2019) with an average amount of about 90.9% of the total Egyptian imports of fish, while fresh or chilled fish are the most important exported groups of fish during that period with an average amount of about 71.7% of the total amount of Egyptian exports of fish. -Both Egyptian imports and exports of fish were characterized by geographical concentration during the period (2015-2019), where the geographical concentration factor of each of them respectively reached about 36.5%, 36%, Where more than 50% of the amount of Egyptian imports of fish is concentrated from only three countries: the Netherlands, Norway, and Brazil, while more than 60% of the amount of Egyptian exports of fish is concentrated in only four countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Lebanon. - Increasing the monthly import price per ton of fish by 10%, leads to a decrease in the monthly import quantity of them by 16.1%, while an increase in the monthly export price per ton of fish by 10% leads to an increase in the monthly export amount of them by 1.7%. - The change in the food gap from fish and the retail price of poultry explain about 98.3% of the changes in the quantity of Egyptian imports of fish during the period (2005-2018), while the change in the total imports of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Kuwait from fresh or chilled fish explains about 99.7% of the changes in the amount of Egyptian exports of fish during that period. The research recommended the following: - Reducing imports of expensive fish species, such as crustaceans and molluscs, and increase its exports. - Expanding fish imports from multiple markets, and maintaining the current markets for Egyptian exports of fish, in addition to working to open new markets. - Importing fish during the months from February to June and in December, and exporting fish during the months from April to September
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