| المستخلص: |
The employment rate depends on a range of demographic and economic factors, the most important of which are: 1- Population size, age structure and the rate of annual growth. 2- Characteristics of the labor force and its structure. From this point of view, this paper will focus mainly on the study of the level and characteristics of human resources in the form of labor force, as well as the impact of population increase on the labor force in the future. Egypt is suffering like most of the developing countries, from the problem of chronic unemployment. This is due to rapid population growth on the one hand, and the economic crises, on the other. According to the findings and results of the Labor Force Surveys, the size of the labor force (15 years and over) increased from 17.7 million in 1997 to 25.4 million in 2009 as a result of the increase in rate of population growth. This leads to the entry of large numbers of working age people. The high rate of male labor forces more than three times those of females. The dependency ratio in Egypt during the study period decreased from 241 per 100 members of the labor force in 1997 to 200 per 100 members of the labor force in 2009. However, the ratios are still high, like most of the developing countries. This is turn leads to increase burden on the State to provide various services such as education, health and housing. Egypt's unemployment rate, estimated to be 8.4% in 1997, increased to 8.9% in 2007 and to 9.3% in 2009 with high unemployment rate for females (22.9%) than males (5.2%) in 2009. The same pattern prevails at the level of both urban and rural areas as a result of the spread of education among women, especially in urban and reluctant of some employers to hire women for fear of child-care leave. One of the characteristics of the unemployed that the vast majority of whom are newly unemployed, they represented 89.7% of the total unemployed in 1997, the rate rose to 92.1% in 2007 and decreased to 84.6% in 2009. The expected labor force estimated by the assumptions of high fertility, (the fertility rate to 3.5 children per woman) about 30.4 million people in 2017 and 32.6 million in 2021. But according to a low fertility assumption (the fertility rate to 2.1 children per woman) the size of the labor forces expected to be about 30.2 million people in 2017 and 32.1 million in 2021. The size of the labor force will increase by about from 6-7 million people during the upcoming 12 years. This increase is due to the continuing increase in population over that period. Recommendations: 1- Updating the National Population Policy. In this respect, the roles of ministries, public organizations, local council and civil authorities concerned with the population problem should be activated. C-ordination of the activities of these institutions ought to be harmonized to achieve the ultimate goal of bringing down the rate of population and labor force growth. 2- Establishing an information system for the labor force to monitor unemployment and its various features, as well as the seasonal change in available job opportunities, both at the national and local levels. 3- Establishing the National Agency for Employment as was suggested in the National Program to confront the unemployment problem. One of the main tasks of this agency is to develop employment strategies, policies and programs; and initiate mechanisms of eradicating imbalances between supply and demand in the labor market.
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