| المستخلص: |
There is no doubt that the American administration is now in a serious dilemma in Iraq as their human and economic losses mount. Every day, American soldiers are killed, and their tanks and military vehicles are subject to destruction. It seems the hand of the Iraqi resistance is taller from what the American administration expected. First US Administrator in Iraq Paul 1. Bremer says in his book "My Year in Iraq": "It seems that the Iraqi insurgency movement is harder than what we thought." Now many Americans are asking the Bush administration to withdraw American soldiers from Iraq. Democrats in the U.S. Congress are pressing heavily to legislate a resolution for withdrawal from Iraq. Now, after more than three years into the invasion, more than 2500 Americans soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq and more than $200 billion have been spent, but after all that what are the scenarios of withdrawal? A. First Scenario: Prompt withdrawal: This scenario faces many objections: 1. Prompt withdrawal means the American administration loses its war against terrorism since it considers Iraq as the main front for terrorist activity. 2. And also how would the American administration explain the invasion and its losses? 3. The USA would lose its position as leader in what is seen as a unipolar world. 4. If it withdraws, America will not be able to intervene in the affairs of any other country in the world. B. Second Scenario: Withdrawal outside Iraqi cities: This is an old scenario. It may reduce American losses, but it will clear the way for sectarian militias to enter the field which may lead to a more devastating civil war. C. Third Scenario: Gradual Withdrawal (Scheduled Withdrawal) This scenario is adopted by several sides including Iraq's Tawafuq Front, the Board of Muslims Scholars, the National Dialogue Front, and others. The Americans are refusing this scenario for the following reasons: 1. The withdrawal scheduling may encourage the Iraqi resistance to intensify their attacks against American troops; and 2. The scheduling could not be announced unless the Iraqi armed forces are ready to take over the security task. D. Fourth Scenario: (Achieving Task) This is the scenario that the American administration has adopted. American officials always emphasize that they will not leave Iraq until they achieve their task in establishing a democratic, secure and a stable country.
|
