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تسعى هذه الورقة إلى دراسة وتحليل تراجع حجم الاستثمارات الرأسمالية المحتملة لفترة السنوات الخمس المقبلة (2010 - 2014)، وتستعرض أهم أسباب ذلك الانخفاض المرتقب في كلفة المشروعات، واستمرار انخفاض الحاجة الفعلية لرؤوس الأموال، نظراً لتأجيل وإلغاء المشروعات التي أصبحت غير مجدية أو أضحى تمويلها غير متاح. وبالإضافة إلى ذلك، فقد بات من الواضح أن هيكلة تمويل المشروعات المتبقية قد اتجهت في مجملها، نحو نسبة أكبر من التمويل الذاتي، في حين بقيت نسبة الاستدانة بالنسبة لمشروعات الصناعات اللاحقة مرتفعة. وإذا أخذنا بعين الاعتبار ما سلف، بالإضافة إلى ازدياد لجوء البنوك إلى اتخاذ مزيد من الحيطة لتجنب المخاطر، وتشددها الملحوظ في شروط الإقراض، فقد أصبحت المشروعات الباحثة عن الحصول على القروض المطلوبة تواجه الكثير من التحديات، وذلك أكثر من أي وقت مضى.
APICORP’s report to the 9th Arab Energy Conference (Doha, 9-12 May 2010) examines the current state of the global credit and oil markets and their effect on the Arab energy investment outlook. The report is in three parts: the first outlines the dimensions of a twin crisis; the second assesses its macroeconomic impact; the third delves more deeply into the impact on the energy investment outlook. This Summary condenses the report’s findings and highlights the main challenges ahead. It further outlines key policy recommendations. More than two years after the onset of the credit crisis in August 2007, financial markets have remained stressed, investments sluggish and the outlook for the global economy weak. As long as the oil market was uptrend, up to mid-2008, the Arab world was thought to be spared from the turmoil. However, the subsequent steep fall in oil prices and the tightening of credits have combined to take a toll on the region’s macroeconomic and energy investment outlook. To cope with these far-reaching crises, Arab energy policy makers and project sponsors have had little option but to reassess their investment strategies and scale down projects portfolios. As a result, the uptrend momentum achieved in recent years has reversed. Our current review for the five- year period 2010-14 has revealed a lower potential capital investment, which stems largely from the postulation of subdued project costs. The review has also confirmed a further drop in actual capital requirements as a consequence of the continuing shelving and postponement of projects that are no longer viable and fundable. Furthermore, although the combined capital structure of the remaining projects has slightly shifted to equity, the downstream industry remains highly leveraged. In this context, and with due regard to higher risk aversion and tightening credit conditions, securing the appropriate amount and mix of debt is likely to be considerably more challenging than any time before. Although the credit and oil markets are stabilizing, the speed at which redundant projects are likely to be brought back is still uncertain. Economic and energy investment recovery, will ultimately depend on the pace of global growth. Meanwhile, banks may not resume significant lending yet, even putting aside concerns about the impact of Dubai’s debt troubles. Accordingly, our main policy recommendations fall within four areas. Firstly, Arab governments should continue making up for shrinking foreign capital inflows to the region by reallocating internally more of the assets invested abroad by their sovereign wealth funds. Secondly, in providing liquidity and enhancing capitalization of pan- Arab financing institutions, they should target those contributing to the development of the petroleum and energy industries, which remain a powerful lever for economic and social development. Thirdly, in reviewing their investment strategies, public and private project sponsors should exclude from any “option to wait” power and power/water projects. Finally, in the context of heightened risk aversion, and the resulting pressure on the availability and cost of capital, the best policy response is to continue reducing perceived risks. In this regard, our “perceptual mapping” highlights the importance of improving the investment climate, which should remain the prime concern of Arab policy-makers.
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