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The economic recovery in 2010 has had contrasting results. Weak growth is evident in the OECD countries, while emerging nations have seen a return to economic boom times. In the hydrocarbons sector, this is reflected in two tiers of demand: strong demand in the emerging countries, slackening demand in the OECD. This year, despite a number of disruptive elements - the issue of sovereign debt, uncertainty over growth in the US, the weakness of the dollar - the price of a barrel of oil has held steady within the $70-$80 range. With regard to natural gas, the marked discrepancy between spot prices and long-term prices in Europe is prompting buyers to exert pressure in the hopes of giving spot prices greater weight in contracts. In the area of exploration and production, the worst of the crisis seems to be over. The oil companies are showing signs of optimism, announcing higher levels of investment, while activity (drilling activity in particular) is picking up. Nonetheless, in view of the overcapacity created during the earlier period of high investment, prices for services have remained low, and the economic recovery has yet to be reflected in improved results for oil equipment and service providers. The oil spill that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico following drilling operations in especially deep water is a tragic event in multiple respects. The resulting moratorium has contributed to a slowdown in offshore activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the second half of the year. In the refining sector, overcapacity will persist worldwide for some years into the future. However, the contrasting conditions observed previously remain in place: emerging countries with high demand, such as China, are maintaining a kind of balance between demand and refining capacity. By contrast, in the OECD zone and Europe in particular, where demand is showing signs of stagnating, imbalances remain or are being exacerbated. The United States, with its substantial under capacity, continues to be a special case. Finally, the Asia-Pacific region is consolidating its position of strength on the international scene, at both ends of the supply chain.
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