| المستخلص: |
تهدف الدراسة بشكل رئيسي إلى بيان أثر التطورات التي تشهدها المخزونات النفطية على إمدادات النفط من الدول المنتجة بشكل عام ومن الدول الأعضاء بشكل خاص، وأثرها على التقلبات في أسعار النفوط المختلفة وذلك خلال الفترة 1999- 2010. ومن خلال محاور الدراسة سيتم التعريف بأنواع المخزونات المختلفة، وتتبع العلاقة التاريخية التي تربط بين المخزونات النفطية وأسعار النفط الخام، ومدى تأثير تلك العلاقة على حالة الاستقرار في الأسواق النفطية.
The aim of this study is mainly to address the impact of developments in oil stocks on world oil supply in general and their impact on OAPEC members’ oil supply in particular. The impact of oil stocks on the fluctuations of oil prices during the period 1999-2010 is also examined. The study gives unambiguous definitions of different types of oil stocks, and tracking the historical relationship between oil stocks and crude oil prices, and then examine the impact of that relationship on oil markets stability. The study is divided into five main parts, the first part identifies the various types and categories of oil stocks which adopted by the oil industry. Part two of the study covers the stages in which the different levels of oil inventories had gone though according to the prevailing factors in the oil market. Part three is dedicated to look at the statistical relationship between crude oil prices and the OECD commercial oil stock, both in absolute values and in days of forward consumption cover. In part IV, the role of oil stocks in achieving stability in the oil market during the period 1999-2010, was reviewed. The fifth part of the study addresses the impact of the change in commercial oil stocks on the oil market in general and on OAPEC members’ oil supplies and crudes prices in particular. The main findings of the study were the following: - The levels of OECD commercial stocks and crude oil prices were inversely related during the period 1999- 2002, and since 2003, this relationship has changed course. - There is weak correlation between the levels of absolute values of the OECD oil stocks and crude oil prices during the period 1999- 2010, however the relation between the levels of days of forward consumption cover and prices is relatively stronger. - The fluctuations in oil stocks levels have an indirect impact on OAPEC Members’ oil supply, since decisions taken by OPEC regarding production quotas is reflected on the production levels in six of OAPEC Members. - It is noted that there is a apparent link between the outcome of OPEC decisions on production quotas and the change in OAPEC members’ crude prices.
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