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التحول في جنوب السودان وأثره علي الاستقرار الإقليمي

العنوان بلغة أخرى: Shift in South Sudan and Its Impact on Regional Stability
المصدر: مجلة دراسات شرق أوسطية
الناشر: مركز دراسات الشرق الاوسط
المؤلف الرئيسي: كامل، أنور سيد (مؤلف)
المجلد/العدد: مج 18, ع 67
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: الأردن
التاريخ الميلادي: 2014
الشهر: ربيع
الصفحات: 111 - 120
DOI: 10.12816/0004857
ISSN: 1811-8208
رقم MD: 514978
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
قواعد المعلومات: HumanIndex, EcoLink
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المستخلص: The State of South Sudan shares political borders with 6 African countries, namely: Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Central Africa and Congo. This may constitute a weakness in the composition of the state, as the large number of neighbours is considered a strategic and security flaw. There would be higher expectations of problems between such neighbours as well as aspirations of the powerful countries in the sites and wealth of the weak ones. Furthermore, the ideologies spread in those close states and the length of boundaries could raise different disputes. In other words, neighbours are affected by each other’s potentials, population, standards of living, sites and balance of power or weakness, influencing the mutual political behaviour. Since its establishment, South Sudan suffers from various fundamental problems. The first is the lack of the basic foundations of a state. The second is that the borders have not been finally demarcated. The third is related to the disputes over the three areas of Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile. However, the fourth, multiple ethnicities, could be the most serious as it threatens the very existence of the state. The country is a meeting point of different worlds. It is not purely African nor Arab; not purely Muslim nor Christian: but a mixture of all. In spite of the availability of economic resources, basically oil, the besieged location makes it dependent on its ties with the neighbours, resulting in incomplete state institutions. On the other hand, it has been too difficult to build a unified army due to the ethnic issue in its racial, tribal, religious and linguistic aspects. It is necessary to remark that the more homogenous the population of a country, the more stable the internal situation is likely to be – which directly contributes to its political significance. This is not found in South Sudan. Multiple ethnicity represents a major cause of political problems and prevents the government from performing its functions unless it can reconcile those groups as well as meet their demands of participation in authority. In fact, such differences, having started in 2013, are hard to control, threatening the very existence of the state. It may have negative influence on both the disputing parties on the national level and then on the regional level. The present report sheds light on those changes in the fledgling state. The analysis draws attention to its historical, political, economic, racial and religious connections with Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia – the natural allies – in addition to Egypt. On the other hand, Central Africa and Congo are the least close neighbours in terms of influencing and being influence by Juba, due to their economic impotence and real internal problems.

ISSN: 1811-8208