المستخلص: |
The Israeli partisan scene for the 20th Knesset elections of 2015 is featured by divisions of previous coalitions and the formation of new ones. The Labour Party, led by Isaac Herzog, has allied with Action to build an election bloc which would rival the Likud over heading the cabinet -Opinion polls indicate that the coalition would have 24 seats. On the left of the Labour, Meretz, which has almost constant social grassroots in the middle classes of the centre of the country , goes into the process independently. It is expected to win 7 seats. The Likud, which has finished the preliminaries, also takes part independently after Lieberman dismantled in summer 2014 their alliance in 2013. Netanyahu beat Danny Danon in the preliminaries hard by 85% .The opinion polls predict 23 for the party, but they all favour Netanyahu as prime minister in spite of his waning popularity. The party has been witnessing many internal dilemmas, such as the split led by Moshe Kahlon, who established a new party called Kulanu. He is an Eastern Mizrahi who is popular among low classes, especially the Mizrahi. It is expected to obtain 9 seats. As for the Arab parties, they are trying to form a joint list of the three following blocs. The first is the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, an Arab- Jewish front group (4 seats). The second is the United Arab List, a coalition between the Islamic Movement and the Arab Movement for Change led by Ahmed Tibi (4 seats). The third is the National Democratic Assembly (3 seats). The attempt to form common list has two objectives: to raise the resolution percentage to 3.15 %, and to face the rising boycott to the balloting by the Arabs, which reached 50% last time. If they go separately to the elections, they are threatened to face further boycott by the Arab citizens, who are calling on them to unite. It is concluded that, on the one hand, the Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties together could win 42 seats, if they are considered to form the center and left of the political map –On the other hand, if the Likud, Jewish Home and Yisrael Beiteinu are considered Center Right and Right, they could together obtain 47 seats. The remaining are the Center parties, with Yesh Atid (9 seats), Kahlon (9 seats), Shas v) seats) and United Torah Judaism (7 seats). Therefore, it becomes obvious that the Center would be the decisive power in naming the head of the government. In addition, if the social grass of Shas and Kahlon are Rightist ‘ they may choose Netanyahu. Thus, if he does not win the biggest number of seats, his opportunity for heading the cabinet is greater than those of Labor leader Herzog.
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