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الرئيسية > تقدير معدل النمو السنوي للسلاس...>الوصف

تقدير معدل النمو السنوي للسلاسل الزمنية: تحليل ناقد ومنهجية مقترحة

العنوان بلغة أخرى: Estimation of Annual Growth Rate of Time Series: Critique Analysis and Proposed Methodology
المصدر: مستقبل التربية العربية
الناشر: المركز العربى للتعليم والتنمية
المؤلف الرئيسي: لقوشة، رفعت (مؤلف)
المجلد/العدد: مج22, ع94
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: مصر
التاريخ الميلادي: 2015
الشهر: أبريل
الصفحات: 153 - 168
ISSN: 1687-3572
رقم MD: 651526
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: العربية
قواعد المعلومات: EduSearch
مواضيع:
النمو السنوي | السلاسل الزمنية | السياسة الاقتصادية | معدل النمو | الاقتصاد
رابط المحتوى:
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المستخلص: This study aimed at criticising the CHIANG'S methodology and the MORSE'S methodology relating to estimating the annual growth rate of time series; consequently, it aimed at proposing an alternative methodology for estimating this rate. The main conclusions of the study can be summarized as follows : (1) The two methodologies (CHIANG and MORSE) may be described as a special case, because they are not applicable to, the time series which include non-positive values; (2) The results of application of CHIANG'S methodology are not reliable; (3) The results of application of MORSE'S methodology are correct, but only, in the case of geometric and quasi geometric forms of time series; Otherwise, these results are not correct and are not reasonable in the cases of another forms. The study alternative methodology proposed can be outlined as follows: (1) re-define the annual growth rate of time series as the equal of preponderate moyen of internal change rates of values of these series; (2) Then, the formula proposed for estimating the annual growth rate of time series (n) is: This alternative methodology proposed may be described as the methodology of the general case, because: (A) This methodology can be applicable to the time series which include the positive and non- positive values; (B) This methodology may be able to estimate the real growth rate whatever the forms of time series. (A) and (B) were proven, in the study, based upon the results of application of this proposed methodology.
ISSN: 1687-3572

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