المستخلص: |
Since Erdogan came to power, Turkey’s regional influence has been rising, supported by strong economic and military potentials increasing year after year. However, as the government have realized how hard it is to join the EU, the Turkish poeople – led by Erdogan – are trying to build a powerful national entity in the Middle East. They have taken another path of leading the Islamic World or, at least, being present in the lead of separated Islamic countries. Nevertheless, the latest regional events are causing a dilemma for the republic as a number of factors are confusing the calculations of the Turkish officials. The present study explores the reasons for the decline of such influence, how to rebuild it and the impact of the US-Iranian agreement and the fall of Al- Assad’s regime on this influence. It is concluded that Washington’s success in taming Tehran has almost put an end to the crisis between the Sunni Gulf states and Iran – the patron of Shi’a around the globe – at the expense of the Syrian uprising and the Turkish influence. Furthermore, due to its experience in the region, the US has managed to guarantee the Israeli national security, at least in the difficult time of suspending the fall of Al-Assad and the attrition of the opposition. This means entangling the Erdogan-Oglu plans.
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