| المستخلص: |
The present report, prepared by the Arab Crisis Team (ACT), discusses the backgrounds, manifestations and repercussions of the Yemeni crisis, in addition to the stands of different parties and possible scenarios. In a bid to solve it and prevent further escalations, recommendations are made to internal and external relevant parties through specific mechanisms. The current dilemma is basically attributed to the year 2011, when protests broke out calling for the departure of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. As the government opted for oppressing these acts and ignoring the public demands, a long-term bloody civil war was feared. There are other causes, such as the following: ‐ absence of powerful military institutions ‐ weak accord between politicians ‐ scarce and ill-managed economic resources ‐ public bodies’ corruption and submission to separate political powers, and ‐ lack of foreign parties’ seriousness in rebuilding the country on the basis of a national, Arab and Islamic identity inclusive to all Yemenis. The main forms of the crisis can be set as follows: ‐ Failure of peaceful political settlement under the auspices of the UN since 2011 ‐ Diminishing actual control of official institutions on major parts of the state, in favour of armed militias, extremist groups and local tribal and territorial powers ‐ Increasing foreign intervention ‐ Growing local debt, and ‐ Sharp decline of economic resources. Among the threats to the country and the region if the crisis continues are the following: ‐ Halt of political course ‐ Spread of violence and instability ‐ Rising power of radical armed groups, especially Al-Qaeda and the Houthis ‐ Escalating Saudi-Iranian conflict in Yemen, and ‐ Deteriorating living conditions of all Yemenis. There are two main scenarios. The first is the persistence of the Houthis’ control on the states’ major pillars as well as the expansion the cycle of violence. The second is a political resolution, return to the democratic course and the execution of the transitional stage programme. The latter would restore stability and prevent the sliding into an extremely serious situation. In spite of the difficulties facing their implementation, a number of solutions are proposed to solve the issue from a strategic perspective, which respects the higher interests of the Arab nation, in general, and the Yemeni people, in particular. Among these are the following: ‐ Conducting a genuine dialogue between the disputing parties under regional and international auspices ‐ Holding a referendum on the draft constitution, so that it would be followed by presidential and general elections ‐ Rehabilitating, rebuilding and unifying the army and security forces ‐ State’s restoration of all institutions and territories, and ‐ Postponing the consideration of the form of the state on the basis of a federation or the separation of some areas until the state recovers from the crisis. The ACT also presents procedural steps aimed at containing the serious repercussions, mainly: ‐ Paying due attention to the true size of the dilemma by the neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states ‐ Taking political and media actions to put an end to the Iranian intervention in Yemen, which could include imposing – or threatening of imposing – sanctions by the countries of the region and Arab countries, supported by the Islamic Conference Organization and the UN ‐ Appointing an envoy from the Arab League to Yemen, and ‐ Creating a specialized unit of experts in the Arab League to investigate the Yemeni case in order to present consultations to the Secretary General and the envoy. Finally, due to the conventional acceptance and respect by all the Yemeni parties to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, it is recommended that Amman play the role of a mediator in this regard. Furthermore, other Arab think tanks are urged to focus on the problem as well as involve Yemeni experts and politicians in seminars or policy sheets to assist in overcoming the crisis and prevent its regional escalation.
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