| المستخلص: |
Since their beginning, the diplomatic Saudi-Iranian ties have seen ups and downs depending on political conditions. The Russian occupation of Afghanistan and the US invasion of Iraq constituted a turning point in this regard. They changed the regional balance in the favour of Tehran and created a state of cold war and rivalry in the Middle East, starting from Bahrain, through Syria, Lebanon and Yemen to Iraq. As the Syrian uprising broke out and turned into a civil war, the contention escalated to a clash, further enhanced by the Saudi military intervention in Bahrain and, later, Yemen. The present report states the main points of dispute between the two sides. On the one hand, Tehran accuses Riyadh of incubating hardliner takfiri thought since the Afghan war. On the other hand, the latter accuses the former of exploiting the Shia minorities in the Arab countries in making up chaos and consolidating its influence. However, international relations like theirs have joint interests. They can find a common ground on, at least, two points. First, both are concerned of the rise of political Islam movements in the region, especially in the Arab Spring states – deemed as a menace to their influence. Second, upon lifting the economic sanctions and putting the nuclear agreement into effect, Tehran is keen on improving its economic situation. The Iranian decision-makers need to maintain good global relations starting with the regional milieu, especially Saudi Arabia. That would build a sort of stability necessary for both sides. The study is concluded with the four following scenarios for the Saudi-Iranian ties: reaching compromises and understandings; linking the case to regional developments; persistence of the status quo; and further escalation and direct confrontation. The third is the most probable in the form of a cold war and war by proxy.
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