| المستخلص: |
As its foreign policy influences the region, including the Arab states, Ankara is considered a major player in the Middle East. Therefore, the ACT is interested in the impacts of the Turkish foreign policy crisis on the regional role and the relations with the Arabs. The report investigates the dilemma's backgrounds, motives and repercussions to those ties. It also elaborates on the shifts and how they reflect on the issues of the region, reviewing the determinants of these changes and the relevant parties’ stands and developments. At the end of the study, some recommendations are made to the Turkish government, mainly on significant matters associated with relevant Arab and regional parties. Prior to the second millennium, TFP tended to go in line with the Western approaches to the region, weakening its own role by ignoring the considerable Arab and Islamic depth. However, since the AKP took over in 2002, strategic shifts have been seen to redefine TFP’s principles, so that a new role for the country could be set to affect the region and the world. The AKP has introduce some changes in the TFP. Nevertheless, internal and regional challenges rose mainly in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, which broke out in January 2011. In this regard, the uprisings represented both a chance and an obstacle. However, the strategy adopted by the various regional and international powers, along with some Turkish policies, left Ankara unable to maintain a leading role within the Arab Spring developments, extremely affecting the TFP priorities. Consequently, such a role declined and calls were witnessed for more pragmatic and realistic mechanisms. As for Turkey’s motives, the following, among others, may be worth mentioning. Firstly, political stances different from those of the traditional allies were taken on some hot regional issues. Secondly, public uprisings were supported in the Arab Spring and ties were boosted with the Islamists who came to power as a result. Thirdly, Ankara’s approaches to the crises of Syria and Iraq clashed with those of their own regimes and their Iranian and Russian allies. Fourthly, the country was busy some internal security challenges, mainly in the wake of July’s failure coup. Fifthly, the Russians expanded around Turkey and Iran expanded throughout the Middle East in military and political terms. With reference to the repercussions of the TFP to the region, the shifts determinants and future tendencies are explored. According to the present report, the changes may be economic and political at the beginning and move to the security and military aspects, perhaps also attempting to accomplish partnership in solving regional issues and face internal challenges. It is the factor of time that is the most significant to achieve success. For the authors, such a shift is likely to lead to more independence in Ankara’s realization of its targets, fulfill its regional interests and improve the relations with Russia, Iran and the obviously influential Arab countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, and maybe Egypt and Syria. Finally, a number of recommendations are made to the Turkish Government in this context, such as the following: - Keeping the policy of openness and dismantling crises in its relations with regional and international parties - Maintaining balance in such ties and avoiding political and media escalation - Keeping the national public popularity and the positive image of the Turkish policies towards the nations of the region - Staying among the supporters of the Palestinian issue, even in light of the normalized relations with Israel - Confirming respect to the sovereignty of Arab and Muslim countries and not interfering with their internal affairs, while maintaining the right to defend its own interests and national security - Boosting ties and cooperation with Riyadh - one of the most central Arab parties in the region - Improving the mechanisms of political, economic and cultural cooperation with Jordan, bearing in mind the common benefits and close ties during the last few decades as well as the kingdom's key role in connection with Jerusalem and the Palestinian issue.
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