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|b The sectarian crisis in the Arab world today is the most serious witnessed in the region. Because of its importance and its dangerous implications, the Arab Crisis Team- ACT in MESC is attributing this issue to further researching this growing phenomenon. It first looks at the sectarian crisis itself, its present situation and consequences. Then it draws out the scenarios related to its development, identifying features that will surely affect its future. Finally, the team makes its recommendations to increase opportunities to draw up a scenario to end such a sectarian crisis, its division and in confronting it. The sectarian crisis in the Arab world is widening to include Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, rest of the Gulf countries and more, overstepping these states to the rest of the Middle East, to Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Such a crisis is now threatening the security of the Arab nations and the stability of most states in the region. Sectarianism is one of the most pressing issues provoking conflicts and instabilities in the Arab world in light of the continued failure to resolve religious and/or sectarian differences on the basis of intellectual and religious reference; and the failure on the official and Arab partisan levels to form national communities in line with the higher national consensus for development and internal stability and to meet the external challenges. The so-called subjective factor in the sectarian issue, and notwithstanding the external dimension, remains critical, especially in the light of the new strategy and thought of the neoconservatives in the United States and their plans in the Middle East affected by the theories of sectarian fragmentation developed by the well-known historian Bernard Lewis. It is from this stance, the strategies of intervention and fragmentation became focused when Afghanistan was invaded followed by Iraq. It is within this context, the objectives of the American occupation of Iraq in 2003 must be understood in, not to say anything about the onslaught and destruction of the Iraq state and the corruption of its institutions to serve as alternatives on sectarian basis and formation. The ACT report outlines the most significant repercussions of the sectarian crisis in the Arab world including: The hemorrhaging of the capabilities of the Arab states in sectarian struggles against the real internal priorities represented through political, economic and social reform and realization of comprehensive development; social fragmentation of Arab countries and division of its communities into sects accusing one another and creating doubt, suspicion and despair in their make up with onslaughts on their coexistence inside the one nation instead of building it on basis of solidarity, interdependence and cooperation and unity of all citizens; the shift from real and inevitable risks threatening Arab states, especially those external dangers like Israel’s existence, is a must; sectarian allegiance against identity to the nation and the state and those who seek to undermine higher Arab interests; those who seek to push the younger Arab generations into the sectarian circle as opposed to the wider comprehensive nation free from sectarian parochial culture. The report presents two expected scenarios expectant of the sectarian crisis in the Arab world, the first is its continuation to the same spiraling level and the second is ending it and exiting out of the present struggle, divisions and in confronting it. In light of these there are a number of factors affecting the route of the future of the crisis with its most prominent being the impasse on the Syrian, Iraqi and Yemeni fronts, Iran and its allies, Saudi Arabia, some of the other Arab countries, future of Turkish-Iranian relations, possible role of Turkey regarding the crisis, existence of Daesh and other extremists groups with similar ideologies and the Shiite popular forces and similar organizations. Lastly the policies of the American administration under president Donald Trump regarding the region and especially Iran and Arabs and its stand on the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts. The report is based on the current behavior of the parties who directly impact the crisis, opportunities involved in the continuation of this state of incitement, polarization and sectarian confrontation in the coming period as long as there is no fundamental change in the factors affecting this state of affairs and the positions of regional and international actors. To increase the opportunities to realize the ending-of-the-crisis scenario and do away with divisions and confronting sectarianism the Arab Crisis Team makes a number of recommendations with the most prominent being: Stopping all forms of sectarian incitement, refraining from hate speech, accusation and treachery, promoting a culture of acceptance of religions, sects, and ethnicities, and emphasizing positive coexistence on the basis of the search for commonalities. Other recommendations include a declaration of ceasefire in all areas of armed struggle under international supervision and mechanism under Article 7 especially relating to Iraq, Syria and Yemen and opening dialogue on the highest levels relating to those parties involved in the crisis, whether its governments, NGOs, political elites, thinkers and intellectuals to contain the crisis and sooth the atmosphere. This would include searching for outputs and understandings that would contribute to finding solutions and satisfy all parties through regional mediations with the parties in the struggle. These mediators should include Jordan and Turkey in cooperation with Arab, Gulf and other sides.
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