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Jordan faces many difficult challenges. It is surrounded by regional and international environment of rapid changes with much political, security and economic consequences on the stability of many states in the region. These challenges have posed hard options on the country on the local and external levels. The report “Jordan: Hard Options” by the Arab Crises Team (ACT) at the Middle East Studies Center (MESC) in Jordan aims at serving decision-makers, presenting discussions around the options of Jordan that serve the higher interests of the country. On the local level, certain steps were taken towards pluralism and public participation after 2011. However, the country has witnessed afterwards critical reversals on the political, social and economic levels. These reversals have been represented by limiting public liberties, hegemony of the executive on the legislative and judicial authorities, shrinkage in the growth rates and increase in the budget deficit, indebtedness and high unemployment. On the level of the Palestinian cause and the “Deal of the Century” Jordan is witnessing -on formal and public levels- a case of anxiety because of the Israeli ambitions in the region in the light of increasing Israeli extremism and American bias. This is as well as the fact the Palestinian cause is no longer a priority on the international and regional agendas. Not to say anything of the disputes between Jordan and the Arab allies in the Gulf states emanating from the latter’s ‘communication’ with Israel whilst pressuring Amman to accept the American deal especially concerning Jerusalem and refugees at the expense of Jordan. On the Arab, regional and international levels, given its geopolitical location amidst an inflammatory environment and regional dynamics, Jordan has faced critical challenges that affect its geostrategic role. These challenges have been basically resulted from 1) Jordan's hosting of a great number of Syrian refugees; 2) the closure of Jordan's trade border-crossings vis-a-vis Iraq and Syria which greatly affected Jordan’s economy; 3) Jordan's deteriorating relations with Gulf countries and accompanying low aid. In the light of these, the future options of Jordan have become hard, but three options can be identified on the local level: First, to maintain the existing political, economic, social and security policies without focal change. Second, to make sure the democratic route continues and with more political reforms. Third, to retrograde in public liberties and political reform and to adopt stringent security policy. The optimal option for Jordan on this level is to "increase the local route with more economic and political reforms". The impacts of this option are widely and deeply positive. While the other options would come to adopt more extreme policies that might cause extra challenges to Jordan. Among the most prominent requirements to realize this option: the realization of political determination for change, bear its consequences and accept its results within the popular context and the higher interests of the state; then the crystallization of a joint strategic national vision to treat the political imbalances in the management of public affairs on political and economic levels. As to the options facing Jordan on the external level, three options can be identified: continuation of the existing political positioning, change to new positioning and openness and diversity of options. "The policy of diversity, the expansion of relations and the realization of balance" is the best option on this level due to the results it would yield and in terms of its reality and ability to adopt it. Some of its major requirements include: Jordan’s initiative to build stronger relations with regional countries, especially with Turkey and to a certain extent with Iran within the economic and political context that does not affect its commitments to relations with other Arab countries. Then to maintain Jordan's international relations with the West in the future and in a manner that achieves economic support and provides a political umbrella and military and security support. As for the stand towards the “Deal of the Century”, it seems that Jordan’s choice to oppose the deal was the strongest. It concurs with the position of leadership institutions in the sate, the political forces and parties as well as the wide public support to Palestine cause. Given that the choice of allowing the deal to go through might prevent political and economic pressure for a short time, but it will severely harm the higher national interest of Jordan and its role in the Palestinian cause. At strategic level, the late developments have showed Jordan's ability to bear external pressures. At the same level, it proved that Jordan's stability and role still extremely required by many regional and international parties. As such, it is not to exaggerate performing pressure on Jordan by these parties, which strengthens Jordan's option to oppose the deal if Jordan's vision is not considered. The Arab Crises Team presents its recommendations to face the hard options related to both current and future challenges confronted by Jordan, in addition to offering support for its preferred options, the most important recommendations on the internal level are: 1) Develop legislation that organizes political life and strengthen the role of political parties, increase popular participation in political life, regain confidence in the political process and state institutions. 2) Decrease the government spending, reconstruct the public sector, implement an effective and efficient governance system that guarantees more transparency and accountability and to ease the economic burden on the people. The most important recommendations on the external level include: 1) To balance Jordan regional and international relations with proper diversity; 2) To maintain traditional relations; 3) To strengthen the internal front which provides the necessary support for the official position towards solutions that target the liquidation of the Palestinian cause on Jordan’s expense; 3) To confirm with full confidence that Jordan is capable of taking decisions that are related to its higher national interests in an independent manner.
هدفت الورقة إلى عرض تقرير بعنوان "الأردن...الخيارات الصعبة". وأوضحت الورقة أن التقرير "الأردن...الخيارات الصعبة" يأتي إسهاماً من فريقي الأزمات العربي (ACT) في مركز دراسات الشرق الأوسط-الأردن، في خدمة صناعة القرار، وتحريك النقاش حول الخيارات التي تخدم المصالح العليا للبلاد. كما بينت الورقة أن التقرير يناقش خيارات "الأردن" في مواجهة التحديات الداخلية سياسياً واقتصادياً، وفي مواجهة تلك التي تواجه علاقاته على مستوى الإقليم والعالم ودوره في القضية الفلسطينية، على المستوى الداخلي، فقد خطا "الأردن" خطوات نحو التعددية والمشاركة العامة بعد عام (2011)، لكن تلك الخطوات تعرضت لانتكاسة أدت إلى بلوغ الحالة العامة في البلاد سياسياً واقتصادياً واجتماعياً مرحلة حرجة، حتي التضييق على الحريات العامة، وعلى مستوى القضية الفلسطينية وصفقة القرن، تسود "الأردن" رسمياً وشعبياً حالة من القلق بشأن المطامع الإسرائيلية في المنطقة مع تعاظم التعنت والتطرف الإسرائيليين، والانحياز الأمريكي، وتراجع أولوية القضية الفلسطينية على الأجندة الدولية والإقليمية، وعلى المستوى العربي والإقليمي والدولي، واجه "الأردن" تحديات مهمة بحكم موقعه الجيوسياسي وسط محيط ملتهب، وتفاعلات إقليمية متداخلة أثرت على دوره الجيواستراتيجي. واختتمت الورقة بالتأكيد على أن فريق الأزمات العربي (ACT) قدم عدد من التوصيات اللازمة لدعم خياراته في مواجهة صعوبات المرحلة الراهنة والمستقبلية، منها على الصعيد الداخلي تطوير التشريعات الناظمة للحياة السياسية، ودور الأحزاب وتشجيع المشاركة الشعبية في الحياة السياسية، واستعادة الثقة الشعبية بالعملية السياسية ومؤسسات الدولة. كُتب هذا المستخلص من قِبل دار المنظومة 2018
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