A Study on the Effect of Interest Rate on Inflation Rate in Egypt
| المصدر: | المجلة العلمية للاقتصاد والتجارة |
|---|---|
| الناشر: | جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة |
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | El-Sadat, Essmat Hassan Ahmed Essmat (Author) |
| مؤلفين آخرين: | Mowafy, Mamdouh Abd Al-Alim Saad (Co-Author) |
| المجلد/العدد: | ع1 |
| محكمة: | نعم |
| الدولة: |
مصر |
| التاريخ الميلادي: |
2020
|
| الشهر: | أبريل |
| الصفحات: | 293 - 322 |
| ISSN: |
2636-2562 |
| رقم MD: | 1066407 |
| نوع المحتوى: | بحوث ومقالات |
| اللغة: | الإنجليزية |
| قواعد المعلومات: | EcoLink |
| مواضيع: | |
| كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية: |
Interest Rates | Inflation Rates | Exchange Rates | Net Exports Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average "ARIMA" | Model and Error Correction model "ECM"
|
| رابط المحتوى: |
عدد مرات التحميل
27
| المستخلص: |
In the recent periods, Egypt is seeking to find new ways in order to reduce the inflation rate by using the tools of the Central Bank of Egypt through monetary policy and fiscal policy, as the Central Bank of Egypt has reduced the interest rate four times over the past three years since the liberalization of the exchange rate in March 2016. Exchange rates and net exports are very effective and important moderators to be included in an econometric model that can implies the effect of interest rates on the inflation rate. An Error correction model (ECM) for long run forecasting of inflation rate showed a direct significant impact of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate while it showed an inverse significant impact of net exports on the inflation rate. An Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model illustrates that inflation rate time series is stationary at the first difference and a forecasting can be generated depending on one previous observation of the same series. These results confirm that the Egyptian government has made great progress in the steps of controlling the high levels of inflation rate. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: |
2636-2562 |
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