المستخلص: |
The first centenary for the announcement of Greater Lebanon comes amid several major dilemmas, which place the state before challenges close to either survival or entire collapse within a completely different form. The present report discusses the survival challenges and opportunities through multiple tracks. It begins with the Taif Agreement of national accord, different parties’ stands and repercussions to the political landscape, ending with the scene in the wake the Beirut blast on 4 August 2020. It investigates the influential internal, local, political and sectarian parties, which may represent military, security, economic or other powers, in addition to the calculations of foreign players. Then, the most likely scenarios are set, along with their potential realization. It is concluded that Lebanon, in the first centenary, is facing many challenges associated with current regional and international conflicts, as well as aspirations for influence, domination and expansion. Thus, it can only survive, progress and overcome such challenges through an inclusive regional solution which maintains each party’s interests and rights.
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