المستخلص: |
تم تجميع بيانات التدفق الطبيعي لإيراد نهر النيل عند اسوان (قبل السد العالي) وكذلك بيانات متوسط درجة حرارة كوكب الأرض للفترة من 1871 حتى 2004. وجد ارتباط بمعامل R 2=0.93 بين المتوسط المتحرك لمدة 66 سنة بين التدفق الطبيعي لإيراد نهر النيل ومتوسط درجة حرارة كوكب الأرض وكذلك ارتباط بمعامل2R 2=0.9 بين المتوسط المتحرك لمدة 11 سنة بين التدفق الطبيعي لإيراد نهر النيل ورقم الستة. تمت دراسة مقارنة لنتائج النموذجين المستنبطين ووضحت النتائج ان الاتجاه العام لإيراد نهر النيل في زيادة حتى 2061.
Correlation between the yearly mean Global Temperature (GT) of earth and the yearly natural flow of the Nile River arc investigated during the period 1871-2004. A significant correlation value of 0.93 was found between the moving average for 66 years of the yearly mean Global Temperature (AVGT[66]), and the yearly natural river flow (AVf[66]). A relation between AVGf[66] and (AVGT[66]) was established and presented in the paper with a coefficient of determination (R2 Coef Det = 0.93(. Actual and a prediction of Yearly AVf[66] have been calculated up to 2073 using Variability method and Global temperature method, first scenario of Global temperature (Global warming) and the second scenario of Global temperature (Global cooling). During the period of prediction, the results show that the years 2061 will be the biggest sum of AVf]66]. Also, a significant correlation of 0.92 was found between Moving average for 11 years of Yearly River Nile Discharge and the number of year with r2 Coef Det = 0.919377 A prediction of Yearly AVf]ll] has been calculated up to 2300 The results show that the year 2121 will be the biggest sum of AVf]ll] and the year 2251 will be the smallest sum by using variability method. All scenarios indicate that Nile discharge at Aswan will be has increasing trend to 2061.
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