ارسل ملاحظاتك

ارسل ملاحظاتك لنا







الرئيسية > The Improvement of Forecasting...>الوصف

The Improvement of Forecasting Accuracy Egyptian Tourism Demand Using Combining Statistical and Judgmental Forecasts

المصدر: مجلة البحوث المالية والتجارية
الناشر: جامعة بورسعيد - كلية التجارة
المؤلف الرئيسي: Mohammed, Azza Elshahat (Author)
مؤلفين آخرين: Thabet, Bahgat Mahmoud (Advisor) , Kamal, Samah (Advisor)
المجلد/العدد: ع1
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: مصر
التاريخ الميلادي: 2022
الشهر: يناير
الصفحات: 132 - 165
DOI: 10.21608/jsst.2022.106213.1350
ISSN: 2090-5327
رقم MD: 1276203
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: الإنجليزية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
التنمية السياحية | التخطيط الاستراتيجي | التنبؤات الإحصائية | مصر
كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية:
Tourism Forecasts | Statistical Forecasts | Judgmental Forecasts | Integrating | ARDL-ECM | Delphi Method | Accuracy | Bias
رابط المحتوى:
PDF (صورة)     
صورة الغلاف QR قانون

عدد مرات التحميل

3

حفظ في:
المستخلص: "This study aims to examine the forecasting accuracy of a combined statistical forecasts and expert judgments method by using annually tourism arrival data in Egypt in period from 1993-2017, using an econometric model, the autoregressive distributed lag model - error correction model (ARDL-ECM), statistical forecasts adjusted by the Delphi experts. Over the forecasting period of 2018 -2022, the combined forecasts outperform the baseline forecasts produced by (ARDL- ECM) models, demonstrating the value of implementing this integration procedure, and determine if the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. Various error measures such as (APE), (MAPE), and (RMSPE) are used to determine forecasting effectiveness, and statistical tests were performed to evaluate forecast accuracy using the Delphi method and a range of expert judgment adjustments to integrate statistical forecasts and expert judgments. Several forecasting models are compared as part of the study to evaluate the performance of the combined method by examining the statistical and judgmentally adjusted forecasts with regression analysis we were able to determine whether or not they were biased. Based on the hypothesis tests, it was concluded that the Delphi panel adjustments increased forecast accuracy. However, for some sample markets, the group-adjusted forecasts were biased. There are several advantages to integrating expert judgments into statistical forecasts; however, combined forecasting does not always produce satisfactory results, especially when historical information is unavailable."
ISSN: 2090-5327

عناصر مشابهة


© 2024 المنظومة. جميع الحقوق محفوظة.