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الرئيسية > بحث>Estimating of Import Demand Fu...>الوصف

Estimating of Import Demand Function in Egypt

المصدر: المجلة المصرية للتنمية والتخطيط
الناشر: معهد التخطيط القومي
المؤلف الرئيسي: Elhamalawy, Fatma (Author)
المجلد/العدد: مج32, ع1
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: مصر
التاريخ الميلادي: 2024
الشهر: مارس
الصفحات: 87 - 114
ISSN: 1110-984X
رقم MD: 1505452
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: الإنجليزية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
دالة الطلب | الميزان التجاري | السلع الغذائية | مصر
كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية:
Import Demand Function | OLS | Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) | Cointegration | Egypt
رابط المحتوى:
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المستخلص: This study aims to estimate the determinants of import demand in Egypt, utilizing the ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and the vector error correction model (VECM) for the period (1982-2021). The results of the study indicate a positive and significant relationship between the demand for imports and exports, evident in both short and long term perspectives. Additionally, a negative and significant relationship is identified between import demand and the real effective exchange rate. These findings carry implications for Egypt's balance of payments. The surge in imports, driven by the concurrent increase in exports, serves as a crucial source of foreign exchange, enabling the country to meet fundamental needs for food commodities and production requirements. However, a caveat is noted: if the growth rate of imports surpasses that of real income, it may lead to a deterioration in the trade balance. In conclusion, the paper emphasizes the necessity to foster export-led growth and underscores the importance of carefully considering alternative strategies, particularly given the limited impact of currency depreciation on import dynamics. Furthermore, the study recommends monitoring inflation trends to gain insights into potential shifts in consumer preferences towards imported goods.
ISSN: 1110-984X

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