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إن مشروع "دراسة الاحتياجات الكمية والنوعية من أعضاء هيئة التدريس في مؤسسات التعليم العالي في المملكة" هو أحد المشروعات النوعية التي أشرف على إعدادها مركز البحوث والدراسات في وزارة التعليم العالي في العام 1430ه. وقد هدف هذا المشروع بشكل رئيس إلى التنبؤ بأعداد أعضاء الهيئة التدريسية في الجامعات السعودية للفترة من 1431 – 1441ه (2010 – 2020م). ومن اجل ذلك طور نموذج محاكاة للتنبؤ بأعداد أعضاء هيئة التدريس استناداً إلى تكوين قاعدة للبيانات تعتمد في مكوناتها على: أعداد الطلاب خريجي الثانوية حسب الجنس والجنسية ومجال الدراسة، وأعداد الطلاب المقيدين في الجامعات السعودية حسب الجنس والمجال للجامعات الثماني الرئيسة وكليات البنات، وأعداد أعضاء هيئة التدريس حسب الجنس والجنسية والرتبة العلمية، وذلك للفترة من 1401 – 1427ه (1981 – 2006م).
Ministry of Higher Education have made great efforts in the past few years to increase the capacity of universities faculty members through a variety of programs, with a growing number of public universities, and the pursuit of the Kingdom to accommodate high school graduates in the public universities in disciplines required by the labor market. So the objective of this study was to predict the future needs of faculty members in Saudi universities in the Kingdom. This was accomplished by building a simulation model defines the relations and the standard statistical link between the needs of university faculty members and the factors affecting them. A data base was built in order to create the prediction of the number of faculty members in the future. The statistical data of high school graduates and enrolled students and the faculty members in the universities were used starting from the year 1980. The number of high school graduate students (male and female), the region, and field of study were taken into consideration when building the data base. The total number of students enrolled in the old universities according to the field of study, numbers of male and female, region (university location) as well as the number of faculty members according to their rank, field of study, and their nature (male or female). A simulation model was developed to predict the ratio of students to staff members (SSR) using historical data and many other statistical methods. The SSR ratio for all fields of study was suggested in this study and was used to predict the number of faculties needed in all the universities. The results of this study predicted up to the year 2020. Also, the total number of students who will be enrolled in all universities (24 universities) depending on the field of studies and region was predicted. The results included the need of faculties year by year up to year 2020. The study also included the faculties ranks and fields of studies.
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