| المستخلص: |
In this issue of the report, the Arab Crisis Team (ACT) explores Iraq’s crisis, with its possible courses. It begins with a vision to approach the dilemma in light of the complications of the scene and its multiple players. It elaborates on the nature of the issue as well as the players’ identity and behaviour, referring to regional and international attitudes. It also focuses on the tendencies of the problem development, establishing a picture of the repercussions, possible and most likely scenarios and parties’ options. Finally, recommendations are made to the relevant parties at the national and regional levels. It turns that what has happened in the country is not surprising for many experts for a number of reasons. One of them is the failure of the basics of the political process since the US occupation in 2003. A second is the sectarian quota system, which led to extreme tension between the Sunnis and Shi’a, blessed by Washington. A third is a feeling of marginalization by most of the Arab Sunnis in light of their weak political participation. A fourth is the disagreement between the central government and the Kurdistan Region. A fifth is the dispute between governorates over their borders. A last one is the intervention by neighbouring countries, like Iran. With reference to the development of the crisis, four possible scenarios are proposed: escalation, persistence of the status quo, decline and a political solution. Until the preparation of the report, the realities indicate that the second (persistence of the status quo) is the most likely for this year (2015). However, if it goes out of the current context, it is more likely to head for further escalation for a number of factors. Among the most significant of these are: - the absence of a comprehensive political solution - the inability of each party to end the battle in military terms - the lack of an international and regional will to put and end to the issue - the continuous state of sectarian division - the government’s insistence to carry on with its policies and attitudes - Public Mobilization’s continuous violations against the Arab Sunnis - Iran’s persistence in deep intervention in Iraqi affairs, refusing to abandon its expansive theory in the region, and - Islamic State’s growing influence and expansion in new territories. The following recommendations are made to find a way out the crisis: - calling on all the Iraqi political powers to abandon sectarianism as well as promote moderation and national partnership among all powers, sects and ethnicities - calling on these powers to maintain the sovereignty of the people and the land - initiating the political reform process - putting an end to the exclusionary policies against any of the components of the society - building a participatory, democratic system on fair foundations to achieve stability and development and fight corruption - calling for cross-national dialogue aimed at restoring balance to the Iraqi political scene - stopping all forms of external negative and exploitative interventions, and giving the chance for the Iraqis to manage their affairs away from the attempts of submission and hegemony, and with full Arab support, and - calling on the international community and neighbouring countries - especially the Gulf states, Iran and Jordan - to contribute to a peaceful political solution. Finally, the report underlines the significance of unifying the Arab vision and stand on dealing with the issue in its both serious sectarian and security dimensions. Otherwise, the Arab role will not be decisive in solving the problem or bringing back the course to the actual questions, rather than being engaged in a war against terror as a beginning to solve the issue. The essence of the crisis is that the regime has been excluding the Arab Sunnis since the US occupation in 2003, instead of combining the sectarian variety - a distinguished feature of the country - in a cross-national framework.
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