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The Libyan crises forms one of the foremost disasters witnessed in the Arab region because of its crucial importance and wide - ranging implications to the security and stability of the region. The Arab Crises Team has sought to focus its present report on the Libyan situation. It starts with a background to the crisis, its critical situation, reasons for it and summarizes the main Arab, regional and international stands towards it. It then maps out scenarios related to the development of the crises and how it is likely to unfold on the local and regional levels. Finally a number of recommendations are put forward to the concerned parties, the Libyans and the regional and international powers. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi became ruler of Libya after the 1969 coup d'etat. He abolished the monarchy and established the Libyan Arab Republic. He ruled it for the next 42 years until the 17 February Revolution of 2011. This uprising, ended his rule but only after fierce fighting. However, the problems of statehood began long after that. It became clear that Libya, under monarchical rule was not able to forge a real social contract to create the concept of citizenship for the modern state. And it would appear this continued to be absent under the long administration of Gaddafi who reduced his rule to one-man and did not allow for the creation of real institutions in in the country. This is what made the Libyan revolution latter on, to be different from its counterparts in Egypt and Tunisia for they had state institutions despite whether the regimes were democratic or not. They had the trappings of statehood in political institutions like parliaments, armies and political parties. Libya on the other hand, and since its independence, never witnessed real political developments nor of political parties, except for a short period under the era of the monarchy. When the 17 February Revolution erupted it was of a general movement of people, it was not politically-motivated nor was it organized. In characterizing the Libyan crisis as a political one, the report makes clear that the crunch emanated from the fact that there developed and came to exist in the country two governments: One established in eastern Libya and led by Abdullah Al-Thini and supported by the forces of General Khalifa Hattar and the other was the National Accord Government in Tripoli and led by the head of the Presidential Council Fayez Saraj and backed by the UN-sponsored Sukhairat Agreement and supported by different military formations. On the economic dimension, and because of the commonalities between the two governments on running the country, the Libyan dinar collapsed against the dollar. After the dollar exchanged for LD1.25 in 2011, it collapsed in the last two years. A dollar now exchanges for 7 dinars. Libya is facing an acute cash liquidity shortage because of the scarcity of its currency in local banks accompanied by expensive principle items and a reversal of its strategic reserves in these commodities, in addition to constant and lengthy power-cuts in the country. There are also great security challenges in Tripoli, other cities and provinces of the country. The Government of National Accord have no control over most of the armed parties on the ground, whether they are pro-government or not. The report illustrates the motives of the crisis: Absence of real state institutions in Libya that have been eroded especially under Gaddafi who administered the state by his orders, it weakened institutions, political parties and civil society organizations ; it led to the accumulation of weapons in the country, its spread and even smuggling; establishment of organizations and armed groups across Libya and its provinces; interventions from regional and by foreign powers in its affairs and those with contradictory ideas to draw the future of the state after Gaddafi's downfall; increased the power of tribes, they became increasingly involved in political action and armament, bypassing political parties which should have taken that role long ago as these parties were banned under the monarchy and Gaddafi; and the growth of "dualism" between "liberals" and "Islamists" and personal and tribal struggles and regionalism and factionalism. As far as the Arab, regional and international stands are concerned regarding the Crisis and its effects, the report pertains to the stand - also adopted by Egypt and the West - that what is needed is for General Haftar to be included in the political agreement. The report presents four scenarios expected in the Libyan crisis : first, stopping the hostilities and move to adopt a political solution based on the Sukhairat Agreement ; second scenario is the militarization of the state and resolving the fighting in Libya militarily in favor of General Hafter; third is the splitting up of the state and it political demarcation; fourth, continuation of the present status quo of hostilities and chaos. The report stresses the continuation of the present situation will create great dangers on the local and external levels that is will led to the scenario of dividing and the militarization of the state and threaten Libya's future, security of neighboring countries and stability of the region that is already being undermined and in a chaotic state with much political and security turmoils. The report ' s writers stress that the political solution scenario carries enormous objective results on the local and external levels and said this is a preferred option that needs doubling the effort on the Libyan, regional and international levels to thwart the obstacles standing in its way and in light of other risky alternatives. For increasing the realization of a political solution scenario The Arab Crises Team is making a number of recommendations to the Libyan sides and neighbors which are : Calling on the Libyan sides to opt for conserving the unity of the country without moving on a slipper - slope of dividing the state on political, geographical and tribal basis and put a stop to all fighting and hemorrhaging of the state ' s abilities immediately. The report also calls on neighboring countries and other regional parties to stop supporting particular sides in the crisis through arms and / or supplies and push for the success of political efforts and ensuring the success of the Government of National Accord and provide solutions through political dialogue rather than reverting to arms. Lastly, the report calls on the different international parties to adhere to the outcomes of the political agreement and to cease supporting other than those agreed upon under the cover of training through providing military experts.
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