| المستخلص: |
The literature dealing with the impact of the two variants of trade policy (the inward-oriented Import Substitution (IS) policy and the outward-oriented Export Promotion (EP) policy) on the country’s economy with respect to economic growth, income distribution, and poverty is vast. The bulk of that literature focused on examining those impacts in the developing countries, theoretically and empirically. Most of the early studies tended to ascertain the positive impact of the outward-oriented trade policy (the EP policy) on growth, income distribution and poverty as com¬pared to the inward-oriented policy (the IS policy). But recent empirical studies do not provide conclusive results on these issues. Both variants of trade policies have been tried in Egypt at different time periods since the sixties. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of both types of policies on economic growth, income distribution and poverty in Egypt, and its relevance to the national development strategy adopted. The study starts by providing the theoretical framework of the impact of the IS policy and the EP policy on economic growth, in¬come distribution, and poverty. The application on Egypt will be taken up next. The impact of the trade policy in Egypt's case will be investigated, starting from the 1960's to the present. Three phases will be distinguished. The first ran from 1961 through the mid-seventies where, the development strategy was framed with¬in the socialist system. The second ran from the mid-seventies until the early nineties when the open-door policy was adopted, and the third phase from 1991 until the present when the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP) was applied. The core of the national development strategy in the last two phases is the market economy. The IS policy was adopted in the first phase, and the EP policy in the last two phases. Accordingly, the study will consist mainly of two parts. The first part includes the theoretical analysis of the interaction between trade policy and development, specifically with respect to the trade policy impact on GDP growth rate, income distribution, and poverty. Part two discusses the trade policy in Egypt since the sixties, its nature in relation to the national development strategies applied, its impact on the GDP growth rate, income distribution, and poverty.
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