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الرئيسية > Macro Econometric Model For Ku...>الوصف

Macro Econometric Model For Kuwait Economy Policy Simulation And Analysis

المصدر: المجلة العربية للعلوم الإدارية
الناشر: جامعة الكويت - مجلس النشر العلمي
المؤلف الرئيسي: Alsalman, Abdullah E. (Author)
المجلد/العدد: مج25, ع1
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: الكويت
التاريخ الميلادي: 2018
الشهر: يناير
الصفحات: 45 - 72
DOI: 10.34120/0430-025-001-002
ISSN: 1029-855X
رقم MD: 871305
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: الإنجليزية
قواعد المعلومات: EcoLink
مواضيع:
السياسة الإقتصادية | التنمية الإقتصادية | النمو الإقتصادي | الأنشطة الإقتصادية | الإقتصاد الكلي | الكويت | المجتمع الكويتي | مستخلصات الأبحاث
كلمات المؤلف المفتاحية:
General Outlook | JEL Classification- C54, E32, E6 | Macroeconomic Policy | Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance | Business Fluctuations Cycles | Quantitative Policy Modeling
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المستخلص: Resembling most countries in the world, Kuwait had multiple attempts to estimate the wide macro-econometric models for its own economy. These models are based entirely on annual time series data. The aim of this paper is to develop a macro-econometric model for Kuwait's economy based on quarterly time series data. Accessibility of quarterly GDP data is vital for economic analyses and decision-making process. The quarterly GDP gives a wide understanding of the general economic activities, especially on the fluctuations of business cycles and on the economic turning points. The purpose of this paper is the specification of the first Kuwaiti quarterly macroeconomic model and its estimation using quarterly data from first quarter 1995 to fourth quarter 2012. This paper lays empirical groundwork for macroeconomic models. I have compiled, expanded and improved a Kuwaiti macro-financial dataset at quarterly frequency. I make use of optimization method to transform GDP from annual basis to quarterly frequency. The construction process of the quarterly macro-monetary model has taken into consideration the theoretical and practical argument concerning the inclusion of various variables and their role in forecasting key macroeconomic variables. Estimation results using GMM are highly significant and the main diagnostic tests indicate that the model is well specified. Accordingly, the model has been tested for short run quarterly forecasting over the period from first quarter 2013 to fourth quarter 2015. Assessments of the model implications for an array of shocks that was often examined in policy simulations were performed and concluded that model output was consistent with macroeconomic theory, particularly with regards to short run/long run impacts.
ISSN: 1029-855X

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