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العلاقات التركية الإيرانية وانعكاساتها على الشرق الأوسط

العنوان بلغة أخرى: Impact of Turkish-Iranian Relations on the Middle East
المصدر: مجلة دراسات شرق أوسطية
الناشر: مركز دراسات الشرق الاوسط
المؤلف الرئيسي: الحاج، سعيد (مؤلف)
المجلد/العدد: مج23, ع89
محكمة: نعم
الدولة: الأردن
التاريخ الميلادي: 2019
الشهر: خريف
الصفحات: 15 - 31
DOI: 10.47084/0836-023-089-002
ISSN: 1811-8208
رقم MD: 981224
نوع المحتوى: بحوث ومقالات
اللغة: العربية
قواعد المعلومات: HumanIndex, EcoLink
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المستخلص: In the third millennium, Turkey's AKP governments moved relations with Iran to new dimensions of strategic depth, zero problems and soft power. As a result, the level of cooperation rose noticeably, especially in the field of economy. The Arab uprisings shook the entire region, raising Tehran's and Ankara's intervention in these countries‟ affairs. More importantly, the Syrian revolution constituted a hard test for the bilateral relations, mounting to trading accusations, threats, war by proxy and indirect messages through local players. Furthermore, the contradictory and rival attitudes with reference to Syria affected other regional issues, pushing Ankara to align against Iran in different areas, like Iraq, Yemen and the Arabian Gulf. However, the two parties soon shifted from confrontation to calm, dialogue and understandings, resulting from the Turkey's 2015 foreign policy reviews. That coincided with significant regional developments, like the Russian military intervention in Syria in autumn 2015, which changed the whole track of the dilemma, the Turkey's failed coup in summer 2016, cool Turkish-Saudi ties sometime after King Salman's takeover in 2015 and the Iraqi Kurds referendum in September 2017. Thus, since late 2016, cooperation or– at least– understanding has ruled the bilateral relations, taking clear shape in Astana talks in 2017. A tripartite framework guaranteed a ceasefire in most of the Syrian territories, leading to better direct economic, commercial and political ties. Such an important shift in the relations between the two regional powers had a direct effect on a number of issues. In Syria, for instance, the military confrontations between the regime and opposition turned to negotiations in Astana (now called Nursultan), though they have not come to an end. In Iraq, the bilateral cooperation along with Baghdad halted Iraqi Kurds‟ independence plan and made the referendum useless. Thus, as was seen before, such relations are expected to see direct and indirect, present and future impacts on regional issues, whether in the form of cooperation (as with Kurds), rivalry (as with Iraq) or disagreement (as with Syria). On the other hand, they do not seem to be stable in the long-run due to various external factors, especially the US pressures and sanctions against Tehran as well as likely escalations in the region, in general, and the Gulf, in particular.

ISSN: 1811-8208